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Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 2 of 13

When I finished, Alan looked down the table and said, President Fisher, was that Henry V? Yes, Mr. Chairman, I replied. I know Ive reached retirement age, said the ancient chairman. I went to high school with that guy.

Would that we could today enjoy commodity trading courses such levity from the days when SIVs, CDOs, ARS and SLARS and VRDOsor the R or the S words, as in recession and stagflation were not yet part of the polite lexicon of monetary circles. These are not the happiest of times. These are, to put it euphemistically, challenging times for central bankers. We are confronted with the twin evils of slower growth and higher inflation, while also having to fight a banging hangover that resulted from allowing financial intermediaries to party on too hard for too long.

The monetary policy and regulatory frameworks that commodity future trading system appeared to serve us so well in past decades are being stress-tested in ways that few dared imagine during that bucolic period when many were lulled into assuming things would be forever NICE, as Mervyn King so memorably put it. We know now that a Non-Inflationary Consistent Expansion is not the steady state of nature. Neither is the Great Moderation of both the economy and financial market volatility.

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Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 10 of 13

There was a time, back when I was an outside observer of the Federal Reserve, when commodity future option trading the Fed practiced what some have dubbed opportunistic disinflation. Beginning in the mid-1980s, the FOMC recognized that while recessions sometimes occur, they could not be anticipated with any precision and that by the time the data revealed a recession, it was too late to do much about it, given the impact lags of monetary policy. The FOMC also recognized that the trend rate of inflation generally fell by about a percentage point or more following a recession. Put it all together and you get opportunistic disinflation, or the idea that if recession comes, make the best of it by bringing down the inflation rate.

This was a period of persistent disinflationand, I might add, a period during which the U.S. economy experienced only two short and mild recessions, a total of 16 months over almost 25 years. Over this same period, the inflation rate declined inexorably, reaching a point where the FOMC had to deal with the threat of deflation in 200304. It was also the period when the Fed made the largest gains in its policy credibility and commodity trading education.

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Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 12 of 13

As a result, trade in services is one of the most rapidly growing components of global trade. Thus, even the available supply of architects or petroleum engineers or software designers or medical technicians or lawyers or commodity trading broker must increasingly be considered in the context of global rather than domestic demand.

The point is that, at present, we simply do not have the ability to adequately account for the impact globalization has on the gearing commodity trading account of our domestic economy. Absent that capacity, we cannot, in my opinion, confidently assume that slower U.S. economic growth will quell U.S. inflation and, more important, keep inflationary expectations anchored. Containing inflation is the purpose of the ship I crew for, and if a temporary economic slowdown is what we must endure while we achieve that purpose, then it is, in my opinion, a burden we must bear, however politically inconvenient.

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